Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Republicans Can't Do Math

The Republican Party has a lot of problems, but it’s biggest problem is that they can’t do math.  I will just assume that if you’re reading this, you know what demographics means, and that you can understand numbers.  I did just a tiny bit of research and this is what I found.

People are constantly coming and going in the U.S.  There are immigrants coming in, Americans leaving for other countries, babies being born, old folks dying, growing industries offering jobs, obsolete industries losing them, and lots of people getting tired of shoveling snow.  The question is, are Red states losing more population (read votes) or are Blue states?  Here are some quotes from www.governing.com - so you can check it out yourself.

“And while other states offset domestic population losses with increases in international migration, Maine and Vermont haven’t seen the same influx of the foreign born.”

Since the 2012 election, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada all gained in population.  “Arizona grew to top Massachusetts as the 14th largest state.  Demographers predict the growing numbers of minorities in Arizona could eventually turn the state from red to blue.”


“In general, Democrats see a 2016 advantage in the fact that many of these states (those growing in population) are gaining minorities who traditionally lean disproportionally toward Democratic candidates.”


So, it makes no sense at all for Republicans to alienate immigrants who are moving to Red states.  That will only help turn that state to Blue.  Which then means that Republicans lose even more states to Democrats.


“Almost a third of Florida’s new residents were immigrants, with Census Bureau estimates released this fall showing Cuba as the top source recently.” (Not Mexico.)


“Republicans won North Carolina in 2012 by about a 2% margin, but an influx of African-Americans there in recent years make Democrats hopeful they can capture it in 2016.”  Republicans should be very, very careful not to insult and denigrate these voters.


And, just to demonstrate how out of touch the Republicans are, “. . . California’s biggest source of immigrants for 2011-2014 combined are China and Taiwan, at 73,000 people; India, at 61,000; and the Philippines, a 42,000 people.  About 24,000 people came from Mexico, just slightly more than the number from Vietnam.” 


Because of the mathematics, it looks as though the Democrats will easily have enough electoral votes to win the White House.  And Republicans, who knew four years ago that they needed to court these immigrants, have gone the other way.  Now that’s just stupid.